Want to See the Future? Six Founders Share Their Secrets for Making Savvy Business Predictions BIZ Experiencess need to know what's coming, or at least make their best guess. Here, six founders explain how they work their crystal ball.
This story appears in the July 2022 issue of BIZ Experiences. Subscribe »
1. Listen to the rumblings.
"I keep an ear out for what questions people are asking, what studies are coming out, and what's sparking the curiosity of the Wooden Spoon team. For example, once I started hearing rumblings of, 'Mushrooms are having a moment,' I upped our Mushroom Magic tincture inventory. Now the wellness industry is experiencing the 'shroom boom,' which is exciting because we already have a product in place." — Lauren Haynes, founder, Wooden Spoon Herbs
Related: How Your Business Can Be Ahead of the Curve by Looking Backward and Thinking Forward
2. Synthesize small clues into a bigger story.
"We recently launched a product called The Ice Box. It was difficult to drum up enthusiasm internally, but product development is like detective work. You find small clues and synthesize them into a story. I knew ice storage was a universal pain point for consumers, and with The Ice Box's price point and sleek design, I was sure we had a hit on our hands. It became our fastest-selling item with retail partners in 2021." — Kate Lubenesky, president, W&P
3. Trust your market research.
"Before I launched Hally Hair [which makes demi-permanent hair dye], I got a lot of pushback about offering natural shades like blonde and brown. The perception is that Gen Z only colors their hair pink and purple, but I trusted the market research we'd done. Now, our three best sellers are Atomic Blonde (light, ash blonde), Purple Avalanche (cool, dusty lilac), and Cola Coaster (soft, milky brown)." — Kathryn Winokur, founder and CEO, Hally Hair
Related: Meet the Elite Team of Superforecasters Who Have Turned Future-Gazing Into a Science
4. Build on existing trends.
"When I came up with the idea for Minnidip, others doubted the demand for inflatable pools. But I trusted my analysis of search trends, and my gut instinct. After years of development, just before we launched, 'floaties' became a social media craze. In search trends, I compared 'inflatable pools vs. floaties.' And just like I anticipated, search data for inflatable pools surpassed floaties 10 to 1." — Emily Vaca, founder and CEO, Minnidip
5. Consider the impact of new innovations.
"When I first saw a game on the original iPhone, I immediately knew that mobile gaming was the future, and women were going to be its most important demographic. Prior to smartphones, you had to buy a console or game for your computer and then play for a chunk of time. Smartphones democratized gaming because it's in your pocket, many games are free, and they can be played in short, on-the-go sessions. Today, roughly 63% of mobile gamers are women." — Jill Wilson, founder and CEO, Robin Games
Related: 3 Things to Do Right Now to Future-Proof Your Business
6. Follow the logical progression of behavior.
"I predicted that scalp health, rather than hair health, was our path forward. I remained adamant, even as confused friends asked me what styling products I'd put out. I believed that if consumers spent so much time and money on skincare, the natural evolution would be to other parts of their body. Still, I had no idea how big scalp care would become." — Helen Reavey, founder, Act+Acre
