Who's Afraid of the Hawkish Fed? Stocks to Buy On Sale This market tantrum looks a lot like 2018 when credit markets choked and the Fed retracted its talons.
By Kevin Cook
This story originally appeared on Zacks
In this pre-Fed episode of Cook's Kitchen, I look at interesting charts from NVIDIA NVDA and Shopify SHOP as well as my favorite market breadth indicators that might signal a "wash-out" capitulation in stocks.
By the time you are reading and watching, the FOMC will have already delivered its economic projections, rate hike forecasts, and the all-important presser with the Jay-Hawk.
But as I explain, I was already a buyer into Monday's capitulation lows with the ProShares UltraPro QQQ 3X Bull ETF TQQQ and I will buy more today if the Fed is showing too many hawk feathers and it slips back below $50.
As for NVIDIA and Shopify, I think they are trading near very attractive levels and I offer my views thus: NVIDIA is reacting to the increasing probability that they won't be able to buy Arm Holdings and Shopify is reacting to an analyst back-pedal on earnings growth.
Regarding my market breadth charts, I show 3 that are very useful, including my favorite which has helped me spot correction bottoms for over 5 years.
Speaking of corrections, in the video I also show a great table from Bespoke Investment Group on Nasdaq kerplunks since 2009. What stands out to me is that the current 17% wipe-out is still junior to the 2018 "valuation adjustment."
This is important because we are in a similar policy environment where the Fed is getting more hawkish and the market is throwing a tantrum. If investors don't like what they hear today about rates and inflation projections, then we could easily be headed for the 20-handle in this correction.
But the pain should be over fairly quick as the smart money knows rates will only be rising slowly and still make stocks the only game in town. And seriously, since the market tantrums worked the last two outa two, it will probably work again.
Finally today, I looked at Block SQ and The Trade Desk TTD as buying candidates in this uncertainty. Besides the fact that I think Jack Dorsey is a blockhead for changing the name to Block, the stock is ridiculously cheap under 4X sales for the premier small business ecosystem.
Maybe investors hate his obsession with crypto, Bitcoin, and the now eponymous Blockchain. I'm still scratching my blockhead about it.
As for the "CME of Advertising" -- my nickname for The Trade Desk because of their lightning-fast exchange model for data-driven ad deployment -- I was a buyer on Monday near $60 and I would buy more given the chance.
So, Jay Powell & Co. if you guys and gals are listening, don't worry about those folks throwing a tantrum and go ahead and strut your inner hawks today.
It will give us one more bear-trap market flush and a bunch of great opportunities to buy stocks on sale for a Feb-March rally.
As promised in the video, I leave you with the link to Tracey Ryniec's 300th episode of the MarketEdge podcast, where we go over our bull market mistakes, and how to avoid them going forward...
Lessons from 7 Years of Stock Investing
Disclosure: I own NVDA, TTD, and TQQQ for the Zacks TAZR Trader.
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