When The Party's Over . . . You've built your business on millennium madness. Good for you! But what happens when the ball drops over Times Square? Don't let your business become last century's news.
Opinions expressed by BIZ Experiences contributors are their own.
Giddiness and high times are now the story at all the companiesthat make and sell "official" millennial gear.
From countdown clocks to "Last of the Millennium"T-shirts, merchandise is flying off the shelves as consumersprepare themselves to commemorate a truly unique event.
But in the midst of all the celebration, one ugly thought nagsbusiness owners: "Who's going to want amillennium-anything on January 2?" says Budd Goldman, 52,owner of Countdown Clocks International in Mineola, New York."When this party is over, there will be a very empty feelingamong millennium merchandisers."
It will happen in an instant. And in that heartbeat of a clocktick, as the calendar page shifts from December 1999 to January2000, millennial merchandisers will see their businesses evaporatebefore their eyes. The scary fact is obsolescence is built intomillennium gear, and there's nothing sadder than a fad that hashad its day, says Michael R. Solomon, a professor of consumeraffairs at Auburn University in Auburn, Alabama. "On January2, the trinkets and T-shirts will be old news."
Yeah, but isn't there hope for an encore, a repeat"Enter the Millennium" celebration on December 31, 2000?Merchandisers who think so know their calendars but havenonetheless slipped into self-delusion. Yes, the technical fact isthe next millennium really doesn't start until January 1, 2001.Holding tightly to that fact, some millennial merchandisers believethe public will rally for a second celebration. But businesspragmatists know it's a sucker's bet.
Kenneth Walker of Walker Group/Designs, for instance, begantrademarking "01-01-00" as early as 1994. By 1997, he hadspent more than $500,000 on trademarks alone, but he owned the markin 30 countries. Then he set about licensing his mark to makers ofmugs, watches, caps, and even umbrellas, getting 01-01-00 productsinto close to 10,000 stores, including biggies likeBloomingdale's and J.C. Penney. Walker hit a home run--to thetune of $60 million in fourth-quarter 1998 sales alone--but he hasno illusions about the future. "We project some first-quarter[2000] sales in Asia, where calendars are different, and incidentalsales in Europe and the United States," says Walker."Then it will stop. We'd like to have it [carry over] intothe next millennium, but we're not fooling ourselves."
Might other millennial merchandisers with broader product hooksfare better? Not likely. "Many people are bored by themillennium already," says Audrey Guskey, a marketing professorat Duquesne University in Pittsburgh.
Solomon agrees: "The millennium has been overexploited.People are sick of it." Sure, the consuming public isnotoriously unpredictable, but face it, the odds of an encoremillennium are slim to none, and no merchandiser can count on asecond celebration to pump life into a dead business.
So what can millennial merchandisers do once the party'sover? We canvassed both BIZ Experiencess in the trenches and marketingexperts to get their strategies for building a long-term businessout of a single event and found there just may be opportunitiestomorrow. You're not a millennial merchandiser? Heads upanyway--these strategies are ways to revive any sagging company orslumping product line.
- Think millennium chic. One strategy is to broaden aproduct's appeal, says futurist Gerald Celente, author ofTrends 2000 (Warner Books). "The millennium isn'tjust a calendar change. It signifies something. The millenniumgeneration doesn't want a '57 Chevy. It wants products thatcapture the next millennium's mind-set."
A T-shirt stamped 01-01-00 may be a dust rag by July 2000, butother products won't become obsolete as fast if they reflectnew ways of thinking, Celente says. Make your product embody thephilosophical, intellectual and technological changes that willdefine the 21st century.
Celente predicts that yesteryear's stuff will be swept outin a rush of millennium consciousness. Of course, that's morebad news for marketers of standard millennial gear because theirwares are inherently rooted in this millennium'smind-set. But the product developers who can creatively rethinkwhat they're doing and build in aspects of "tomorrow"have a good chance of hitting it big, predicts Celente.
- Diversify. One marketing canon states that living anddying by a single product alone is risky business. "You'redoomed if you do. Every product has a life cycle; sooner or later,it will die," says Thomas Schori, a principal with MillenniumMarketing Research, a Bloomington, Illinois, consulting firm.
But there is a remedy, says Guskey: Expand your idea andyour product.
That's easy to say, but John Locher is actually doing it. In1996, Locher's company, Milestone Media, put up the Everything2000 (http://www.everything2000.com)Web site, which features information on and links to just abouteverything pertaining to the millennium. Because Locher knows hissite has a limited life expectancy, he's leveraged the know-howhe's gained from launching Everything 2000 to put up"Everything" sites for Christmas, Halloween andValentine's Day. "The millennium site has done well forus, and it's helped us get the other sites up," says theSeattle BIZ Experiences.
Rio Simon, the 32-year-old co-founder of Last of the Millennium,a San Diego-based T-shirt manufacturer, is following much the samestrategy. He realizes that demand for T-shirts with a "Last ofthe Millennium" imprint will be flatter than day-old champagnecome January 2000, but by then he says he'll be pushing a newT-shirt line imprinted with "Club 2000." Even beforethen, however, his company is staying busy putting out '99T-shirts for several San Diego-area high school graduating classes;'00 T-shirts for next year's classes may follow."These variations should keep us busy well into 2000,"says Simon.
- Retool it. Some millennial merchandise can be easilyrepurposed. At Countdown Clocks, for instance, Budd Goldman figuresa minor expenditure for new clock exteriors can transform hismillennial countdown clocks to timers that can count downanything--graduation, retirement, a wedding, you name it. "Mychips can count down to any date," says Goldman, who claimshe's already sold 1.5 million Countdown Clocks at about $25each. "When I created this business, I knew I wanted a lifeafter the millennium, and this product delivers it."
Similarly, Locher envisions revamping his Everything 2000 Website to position it as a "New Millennium" or"2001" site. "The expenses involved will be minimal,and we may find this site has a life span that will take it wellinto the next millennium," says Locher.
More broadly, retooling is always an option when a product hashit the wall. When the costs are minor, the payback just might bebig.
- Minimize inventory. When you can't cheaply revamp orupdate merchandise, the only wise strategy is to get caught holdingas little as possible. "You can't be myopic about it.Soon, nobody will want your merchandise," says Guskey, whoadvises millennial merchandisers to move their inventories out asfast as possible and to plan to end the year with an emptywarehouse.
That's a strategy shrewd marketers understand. Says Simon,"We plan to have very little Last of the Millennium inventoryleft by year-end."
- Throw it away. But the realistic fact is that millennialmerchandisers will be stuck with unsold inventory. What can theydo? Step one: Cut prices--and keep slashing until the merchandisemoves. There's no price that will entice buyers to buy? You maybe stuck; some merchandise will just be junk come January 2.
Don't delude yourself: There won't be a collectiblesmarket in millennium merchandise for many years. In fact, accordingto Solomon, it probably won't exist until 2010 at the earliest.Store some inventory if you have available space, but be ready fora long wait.
Want a faster solution? Give the stuff away, and earn a tastytax break. "Sometimes the goods are worth more as donations tocharity," says David Yoho, a marketing consultant inLouisville, Kentucky. Maybe on the street that T-shirt stamped"New Year's Day, 2000" won't sell for $1 once theRose Bowl's first kickoff hits the air, but give that shirt tocharity, and you can usually claim a deduction equal to its cost,possibly to its suggested retail price. (But check with a taxprofessional before counting on this money.)
- Leverage your skills. Maybe the big gain out of having amillennial business is that successfully marketing in that climateprovides the basis for many businesses to come. Simon, for example,might never have been involved in event marketing if he hadn'tbeen struck with a millennial idea. Now he has plans--and theknow-how--to continue. The millennium may be over, but there willbe other hooks. Whether it's the Olympics, soccer's WorldCup or a visit from the Pope, says Guskey, "[People] now livefrom event to event, and every event is a marketing opportunity.Once you have an expertise at event marketing, you can leverage itinto new areas."
- Be a trend-spotter. "Most large businessesdon't look very far ahead," says Celente. "This iswhere an BIZ Experiences can have a real advantage. And because anentrepreneurial [business is smaller], it can also react swiftly.More than ever, you need to stay future-oriented because the rateof change is so fast."
Remember, Walker started trademarking "01-01-00" in1994. Goldman began developing his countdown clocks in 1996. Simontook out a trademark on "Last of the Millennium" in 1997.The adage tells us about the success of the early birds, andit's no different when marketing specialty products.
But there's another benefit enjoyed by savvy marketers:"You don't have to follow trends; you can also createthem," says Greg Bustin, president of Bustin & Co., aDallas business-development firm. In many ways, the millenniumcraze may just stand as a prime example of a marketing-drivenphenomenon. A flip of the calendar is no reason to buy clocks,T-shirts, caps and more, but the early players helped create amarket, reaped rich rewards, and are now scouting for the nextopportunity. And so should you.
- Stay philosophical. "For every product thatsucceeds, there are many failures before it," says Goldman. Heshould know. He's hit it big with his clocks--overnight, hebuilt a multimillion-dollar business--but he also knows it couldhave gone another way. Maybe somebody could have beaten him to thepunch, perhaps consumers might have yawned at his clocks, and forthose reasons, Goldman says about his triumph, "I feelblessed."
A final bit of advice comes from Marc Polish, a Margate, NewJersey, expert on novelty products and co-owner of Class of'00, which merchandises T-shirts and hats imprinted with thatlogo. "In this business, when you have an idea, you take yourshot and you just may hit a home run. But you never know," hesays. "You're making products people don't need, andthere's no saying where consumers' heads will be."
So ask yourself whether you're having fun in the millenniumindustry, Polish advises. Ask whether you're treating peopleright. "If you're treating people--shop owners, buyers andconsumers--right," he says, "they'll do business withyou again. And if you're having fun, you'll definitely wantto try it again. In this business, you just never know what willhappen. That's what makes it so exciting."
Contact Sources
Bustin & Co., (214) 720-3707, gregbustin@bustin.com
Class of '00, (609) 823-7661, sedonamax@aol.com
Countdown Clocks International, (516) 739- 7800, ext.101, bgoldman@countdownclock.com
Last of the Millennium, (619) 216-1999, http://www.lastofthemillennium.com
Milestone Media Inc., (206) 621-0999;
Walker Group/Designs, (212) 683-2626, walker@010100.com